An economic policy laboratory

US MONIAC

Neutral laboratory · Running

Policy levers

Change one assumption at a time. These controls are proxies, not historical readings.

Policy rate (proxy)4.50%

Higher rates restrain interest-sensitive demand with a lag.

Tax pressure (proxy)21 / 40

An abstract tax burden, not a corporate or marginal tax rate.

Fiscal outlays (proxy)6,800 units

Illustrative spending units, not billions of historical dollars.

Tariff rate (proxy)5%

Import substitution competes with input costs and retaliation.

Consumer confidence60 / 100

A demand assumption, not a measured survey series.

Asset purchases (QE)

Supports liquidity; cannot erase a credit or supply shock.

Historical experiments

Postwar Era

Stagflation Era

Disinflation

Expansions

Crises

Recovery

Historical Reference

A simplified model, not a forecast.

All outputs are 0–100 illustrative indices, with 50 as the neutral reference. They are not GDP dollars, inflation rates, unemployment rates, or measured historical data. Colors identify channels, not good or bad policy.

Fixed scenario shocks: Supply disruption 0 / 100 · Credit stress 0 / 100 · Demand impulse +0 / 100

Activity index: 50.0 / 100
Illustrative demand-weighted activity; not dollar GDP.
Price pressure: 50.0 / 100
Higher means more inflationary pressure, not an inflation rate.
Labor slack: 50.0 / 100
Higher means weaker labor demand, not an unemployment rate.
Debt pressure: 50.0 / 100
Illustrative accumulated fiscal imbalance; not dollars or debt-to-GDP.

The circular flow

Step 0 · 200 ms per step

Conceptual connections, not a balanced accounting system. Particle speed represents an illustrative flow index.

Liquidity: 50.0
Fiscal outlays: 50.0
Exports: 50.0
Activity: 50.0
Imports: 50.0
Receipts: 50.0
Consumption: 50.0
Investment: 50.0
Saving tendency: 50.0
Debt pressure: 50.0

Tank heights show indices, not conserved volumes of money. Import/export index gap: +0.0 index points — not the dollar trade balance.

Activity50.0 / 100

Last 60 steps · not calendar time

Price pressure50.0 / 100

Last 60 steps · not calendar time

How this model works — and where it stops

This is a deterministic teaching model inspired by the hydraulic MONIAC. Adjustable assumptions move indices toward targets; they do not estimate the US economy. A step is an animation interval, not a month or quarter.

Higher policy rates restrain consumption and investment; weaker demand then reduces price pressure and increases labor slack.
Supply disruption can reduce activity while raising price pressure. Credit stress can suppress investment even when rates are low and QE is on.
Tariffs have competing channels. Imports are not inherently harmful to GDP, and this model cannot establish a welfare or trade-balance verdict.
Debt pressure accumulates an illustrative gap between fiscal outlays and receipts. It omits interest costs, maturity, benefit-side automatic stabilizers, and actual federal budget accounting.
Scenario settings and shock strengths are hand-selected teaching assumptions, not fitted estimates. Shocks remain fixed during a run. A new scenario resets all indices and history while retaining pause status.
Expectations, exchange rates, productivity, distribution, and policy feedback are omitted. Coefficients and bounds are design choices, not empirical estimates.

Mechanism references: Federal Reserve monetary transmission; Federal Reserve tariff research; BEA national accounts methodology. Historical sources appear before each scenario is applied.